Is Oakland County the New Macomb?

During the Republican National Convention, which now seems like years ago, Republican Rep. Candace Miller from Macomb County was part of a cable-news panel discussing how well the McCain-Palin ticket would do in Michigan.

Yeah, that was before everyone knew about the $150,000 shopping spree, before the Katie Couric interview, before all the details of Trooper-Gate, before McCain pulled out of Michigan, before the campaign suspension, and before all the other foolishness that characterized the McCain-Palin ticket. But still, Miller said McCain-Palin would carry Macomb County by seven or eight points.

Well, like so many other Republican promises, that didn't happen.

In fact, pollster Stanley Greenberg, who built his career on watching the so-called Reagan Democrats of Macomb County, has lost interest in the phenomenon.

In an op-ed in The New York Times, Greenberg says goodbye to the Reagan Democrats of Macomb County. Says Greenberg:

"I conducted a survey of 750 Macomb County residents who voted Tuesday, and their responses put their votes in context. Before the Democratic convention, barely 40 percent of Macomb County voters were 'comfortable' with the idea of Mr. Obama as president, far below the number who were comfortable with a nameless Democrat. But on Election Day, nearly 60 percent said they were 'comfortable' with Mr. Obama. About the same number said Mr. Obama 'shares your values' and 'has what it takes to be president.'

"Given Macomb’s history, this story helps illustrate America’s evolving relationship with race. These voters, like voters elsewhere, watched Mr. Obama intently and became confident he would work for all Americans and be the steady leader the times required."

Greenberg goes on to say that Oakland County next door is now more interesting because it too went big for Obama, yet its residents were more open to ideas like gay marriage and affirmative action.

"On Tuesday, Oakland County voters gave Mr. Obama a 57 percent to 42 percent victory over John McCain — those 15 points translated into an astonishing 96,000-vote margin. That helped form one of the most important new national changes in the electorate: Mr. Obama built up striking dominance in the country’s growing, more diverse and well-educated suburbs," Greenberg wrote.

Could it be the beginning of a new-style Democratic coalition?